MTS in 2008 (Part II)
$ or minutes per month… Churn must be per year.
| Uzbekistan | ||||
| 2007 | 2008 | Abs chg | Prct chg | |
| ARPU | 9.7 | 7.7 | -2 | -25.97% |
| MOU | 516 | 536 | 20 | 3.73% |
| Subscriber Acquisition Cost | 4.3 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 44.16% |
| Churn | 58% | 21% | -36.90% | -173.24% |
| Turkmenistan | ||||
| 2007 | 2008 | Abs chg | Prct chg | |
| ARPU | 51.9 | 17.1 | -34.8 | -203.51% |
| MOU | 250 | 258 | 8 | 3.10% |
| Subscriber Acquisition Cost | 24.7 | 8 | -16.7 | -208.75% |
| Churn | 24.40% | 14.30% | -10.10% | -70.63% |
| Armenia | ||||
| 2007 (since 09.2007) | 2008 | Abs chg | Prct chg | |
| ARPU | 15.5 | 12.6 | -2.9 | -23.02% |
| MOU | na | 178 | na | na |
| Subscriber Acquisition Cost | 9.7 | 19.3 | 9.6 | 49.74% |
| Churn | na | 28.00% | na | na |
| Belarus | ||||
| 2007 | 2008 | Abs chg | Prct chg | |
| ARPU | 9.4 | 9.7 | 0.3 | 3.09% |
| MOU | 464 | 483 | 19 | 3.93% |
| Subscriber Acquisition Cost | 16.3 | 18.3 | 2 | 10.93% |
| Churn | 24% | 20% | -3.40% | -16.75% |
And some measures of VAS…
| VAS Russia 2008 | mln $ | |
| Messaging Revenue | 521 | 44% |
| Data Revenue | 260 | 22% |
| Content Services Revenue | 359 | 30% |
| Other | 54 | 4% |
| Total | 1193 | |
| VAS Ukraine (incl. CDMA network) | ||
| Messaging Revenue | 70 | 31% |
| Data Revenue | 35 | 16% |
| Content Services Revenue | 42 | 19% |
| Other | 76 | 34% |
| Total | 223 |
The data for the last two tables was given by quarters so I thought that may be there are some interesting trends like the growth of data revenues over the course of the year. Data revenue have, indeed, grown faster than any other segment, and almost 4 times faster than VAS in general:
| 1Q09 to 4Q08 | 2Q09 to 1Q09 | 3Q09 to 2Q09 | 4Q09 to 3Q09 | 4Q09 to 4Q08 | |
| Messaging Revenue | 12.54% | -0.48% | 9.31% | -12.71% | 8.67% |
| Data Revenue | 62.42% | 7.94% | 17.69% | -5.68% | 82.37% |
| Content Services Revenue | 6.63% | -1.54% | 14.42% | 0.66% | 20.16% |
| Total | 17.06% | 0.46% | 11.90% | -6.72% | 22.70% |
–
MTS in 2008
I have downloaded the latest presentation from MTS prepared for press (mind this). I want to put some numbers here in the blog because these numbers always change and it is hard to keep up with them when citing. But! Some numbers are really telling. I will tell you what at the end.
So… FYI, those are the end of 2008 numbers.
# of subs in mln.
| 2007 | 2008 | abs chg | prct chg | |
| Russia | 57.4 | 64.6 | 7.2 | 11.15% |
| Ukraine | 20 | 18.1 | -1.9 | -10.50% |
| Uzbekistan | 2.8 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 50.00% |
| Turkmenistan | 0.36 | 0.93 | 0.57 | 61.60% |
| Armenia | 1.4 | 2 | 0.6 | 30.00% |
95.7 mln total (if Belarus is included with its 4.32 mln.)
CAPEX
Forecast for 2009 – $1500, of which $350 million are planned for network support ($700 is a rollover from 2008, and $450 is planned for EDGE/3G upgrades). In millions of dollars.
| 2007 | 2008 | abs chg | prct chg | |
| Russia | 918.8 | 1399.3 | 480.5 | 34.34% |
| Ukraine | 544.8 | 595.6 | 50.8 | 8.53% |
| Uzbekistan | 30.1 | 139.7 | 109.6 | 78.45% |
| Turkmenistan | 31.8 | 58.2 | 26.4 | 45.36% |
| Armenia | 14 | 34.6 | 20.6 | 59.54% |
| Total | 1539.5 | 2227.3 | 687.8 | 30.88% |
| % of revenue | 18.70% | 21.70% | 3.00% |
OIBDA (unofficial terminology, Operating Income Before Depreciation and Amortization, which in official GAAP reports by MTS is reported as EBIDTA, though the two are different by definition) in mln. $
| 2007 | 2008 | abschg | prctchg | |
| Russia | 3152.7 | 3924.3 | 771.6 | 19.66% |
| Ukraine | 781.8 | 759.3 | -22.5 | -2.96% |
| Uzbekistan | 157.8 | 242.9 | 85.1 | 35.03% |
| Turkmenistan | 93.5 | 77.6 | -15.9 | -20.49% |
| Armenia | 37.7 | 136.3 | 98.6 | 72.34% |
| Total | 4223.4 | 5140.3 | 916.9 | 17.84% |
Operational Indicators (in $)
Russia
| 2007 | 2008 | abs chg | prct chg | |
| ARPU | 9.2 | 10.5 | 1.3 | 12.38% |
| ARPU excl. Guest Roaming | 9.0 | 10.4 | 1.4 | 13.46% |
| ARPU from VAS | 1.3 | 1.6 | .3 | 18.75% |
| VAS as % of ARPU | 12% | 15% | 3.00% | 20.00% |
| MOU | 157 | 208 | 51 | 24.52% |
| Subscriber Acquisition Cost | 26.3 | 27.3 | 1.0 | 3.66% |
| Dealer Commission | 12.6 | 14.3 | 1.7 | 11.89% |
| Advertising & Marketing | 13.7 | 13.0 | -.7 | -5.38% |
| Churn | 23% | 27% | 3.90% | 14.44% |
Ukraine
| 2007 | 2008 | abschg | prctchg | |
| ARPU | 6.6 | 7.2 | 0.6 | 8.33% |
| ARPU excl. Guest Roaming | 6.5 | 7 | 0.5 | 7.14% |
| ARPU from VAS | 0.7 | 1 | 0.3 | 30.00% |
| VAS as % of ARPU | 11% | 14% | 3.00% | 21.43% |
| MOU | 154 | 279 | 125 | 44.80% |
| Subscriber Acquisition Cost | 12.1 | 11.1 | -1 | -9.01% |
| Dealer Commission | 4.1 | 2 | -2.1 | -105.00% |
| Advertising & Marketing | 5.8 | 7.4 | 1.6 | 21.62% |
| Phone Subsidies | 0.6 | 0.4 | -0.2 | -50.00% |
| Cost of SIM and Payment Cards | 1.6 | 1.4 | -0.2 | -14.29% |
| Churn | 49% | 47% | -1.70% | -3.59% |
More to come… (ARPU from other countries, VAS break-down, analysis)
